Ghent-Wevelgem preview: Can Cavendish take the sprinters’ classic?
Over the years, dozens of top sprinters, from Freddy Maertens to Sean Kelly to Mario Cipollini, have won Ghent-Wevelgem, which celebrates its 70th edition on Wednesday. But the UCI ProTour classic rarely ends in a field sprint.
When Cipollini earned his third Wevelgem scalp in 2002, he was in a small breakaway group with Americans Fred Rodriguez and George Hincapie. Hincapie won the race the year before in a photo-finish over Dutchman Leo Van Bon, also in a small-group sprint.
One reason the peloton rarely reaches the finish in large numbers is the weather: strong ocean winds that split the pack apart early along the Belgian coast, or cold, wet conditions that discourage many and often cause crashes. Pileups have often disrupted the race — as they did last year — on the treacherous descent of the Kemmelberg, the steep cobbled hill that is tackled twice in the final 60km of the otherwise pancake-flat 209km course.
But this year’s Ghent-Wevelgem is different. A new route doesn’t touch the coast, and only a mild breeze is forecast. If predictions are correct, temperatures won’t be too harsh, around 50 degrees, with intervals of sunshine and only a 10-percent chance of rain. That fast, nasty cobblestone Kemmelberg descent is being bypassed this time, too, with a short loop on regular, if narrow, back roads.
The changes and predicted mild weather mean that the peloton is far less certain to split up early on, unless powerful teams like Quick Step, CSC and Silence-Lotto decide to exploit the likely crosswinds with ultra-fast echelons before reaching the small hills on the Belgium-France border. The forecast of dry conditions will make it more likely that the pack will regroup over the final, flat 36km into Wevelgem – especially as a head wind would favor strong chase groups on the final stretch.
In other words, a bunch sprint is much more likely. And that could translate into a win for the young man who’s convinced he’s now the fastest road sprinter in the world: Mark Cavendish of Team High Road. The 22-year-old Manxman is on a roll right now. After taking a gold medal in the Madison at the recent track worlds with British teammate Bradley Wiggins, Cavendish decisively won two stages of last week’s Three Days of De Panne.
Those wins showed that Cavendish’s words have substance. As did the 11 victories in his rookie season last year — some of them against mega-sprinters like Robbie McEwen and Erik Zabel.
“In his head, Cav’ is like the young Lance Armstrong,” said Allan Peiper, who was directing Cavendish’s High Road team last week. “He’s very cocky but he has a reason to be cocky. He’s very fast.”
To add to that, the Brit’ will have the help of team captain Hincapie on Wednesday, as well as workers like Roger Hammond — who placed second at Wevelgem last year behind teammate Marcus Burghardt. The young German is not defending his title, so High Road will likely work all out to ensure a field sprint.
If that’s the case, then Cavendish will have to overcome a score of rapid sprinters, including the on-form Thor Hushovd (Crédit Agricole), the 2006 Wevelgem winner; Quick Step’s Gert Steegmans or Steven Jongh (if team leaders Tom Boonen and Stijn Devolder decide to reserve their strength for the weekend’s Paris-Roubaix); Rabobank’s Graeme Brown or Oscar Freire; and the Italian contingent Francesco Chicchi, Danilo Napolitano and Pozzato.
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