The sun was shining from a clear blue sky Friday on the 260km course of Liège-Bastogne-Liège, the 91st edition of which takes place on Sunday. It was almost like summer, with early tourists hiking the wooded trails of the Ardennes, anglers out in the trout streams, and cows lounging around their meadows of lush, green grass. But this sort of weather is unusual for Belgium, a country that on average has 203 days of rainfall a year, and only three days of what the locals call “excessive heat” — warmer than 30 degrees C (or 86 degrees F).
It was great weather for the 25 teams that will contest this ninth round of the UCI ProTour, whose riders were checking out the modified course that returns to some of the key climbs not seen since the mid-1990s. The only problem is the sunshine won’t last through the weekend.
Forecasters say stormy weather is on the way, with thunder and lightning, heavy rain showers and a light wind from the south likely to hit the racers. The only “good” news is that the temperatures should be “mild,” as high as 60 F — except, of course, when it’s raining and there’s a wind chill to take into account.
Weather has often been a factor at Liège-Bastogne-Liège, a race that traverses the high Ardennes (well, high for Belgium, with hills topping out at around 2000 feet elevation). Snow is not unknown in late April, as the peloton has often discovered, particularly in 1980.
That year, it was so cold that Tour de France champ Bernard Hinault, one of the hardiest men to ever race a bike, planned to abandon the race at the feed zone in Vielsalm. He did stop, but his Renault team director, Cyrille Guimard, had readied a winter jacket, balaclava and thick gloves for his star rider. Hinault got back on his bike, rejoined the dwindling lead pack, then rode away from them on the Côte de Wanne. He continued solo for the remaining two hours over a succession of steep climbs and dodgy descents to arrive at the finish in Liège almost 10 minutes ahead of the runner-up, another tough guy, Dutchman Hennie Kuiper.
There won’t be snow this Sunday, but rain showers will certainly make the course tougher than it is already, and perhaps alter the pattern of recent editions of Liège-Bastogne-Liège. Last year, scores of riders came together on the long descent from the Sart-Tilman (Tilff) climb, before tackling the 11-percent St. Nicolas climb, 6km from the finish. When that happens, this oldest of the monumental classics (founded in 1892) can turn into a one-climb race.
Before St. Nicolas was “discovered” by the organizers, tactics and stamina played a much bigger role. Former Belgian world champion Claudy Criquielion, who excelled at the Ardennes classics (he won the Flèche Wallonne and was a three-time podium finisher at Liège), has an interesting theory on this.
“In my day, the Tilff and St. Nicolas climbs didn’t exist. We went straight down into Liège after climbing La Redoute [then 30km from the finish]. Today, the favorites have a tendency to put off as long as possible the moment when they have to attack.”
Also different from Criquielion’s (and Hinault’s) day has been the exclusion of the “Bermuda Triangle” of Liège-Bastogne-Liège, the series of three critical climbs —Wanne, Stockeu and Haute-Levée — in the space of just 12km around the town of Stavelot.
This infamous trilogy often spawned the winning break, even though the Haute-Levée summit is 77km from the finish. The expectation is that the return of these three steep uphills (they all have pitches steeper than 12 percent), followed by plunging downhills, will severely cut the peloton before La Redoute (now 35km from the finish). If that’s the case, few of the leaders will have teammates left with them in the finale, and so they will have to be more aggressive further from the finish than in recent years.
If this pattern materializes, then hot favorite Danilo Di Luca of Liquigas-Bianchi won’t complete the Amstel Gold Race-Flèche Wallonne-Liège triple, achieved last year by Gerolsteiner’s Davide Rebellin. All Rebellin had to do in 2004 was follow the attack made by Rabobank’s Michael Boogerd and T-Mobile’s Alex Vinokourov on the 11-percent, 1km St. Nicolas, then watch those two neutralize each other before jumping clear near the top of the uphill finish.
These three men will again be among the favorites Sunday, but with the changed course and the likely wet weather, we could see a much more exciting Liège-Bastogne-Liège than has been seen in many years.
These are the VeloNews picks for the 2005 Liège-Bastogne-Liège:
5 stars: Michael Boogerd, Danilo Di Luca, Davide Rebellin
4 stars: Mirko Celestino, David Etxebarria, Matthias Kessler, Alejandro Valverde, Angel Vicioso
3 stars: Ivan Basso, Damian Cunego, Cadel Evans, Axel Merckx, Yaroslav Popovych, Alex Vinokourov
2 stars: Kurt-Asle Arvesen, Erik Dekker, Kim Kirchen, Evgeni Petrov, Filippo Pozzato, Patrik Sinkewitz
1 star: Sylvain Chavanel, Mirko Celestino, Aitor Osa, Jérôme Pineau