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Inside the Tour - Armstrong still has a shot at Paris podium
After the most difficult mountain stage of this Tour de France, Alberto Contador appears to have wrapped up his second overall victory in three years. But the fight for the other two podium places will continue Thursday in the stage 18 time trial at Annecy — before being wrapped up on the Mont Ventoux summit Saturday.
Five men still have hopes of joining Contador on the podium: his two Astana teammates Lance Armstrong and Andreas Klöden, Saxo Bank’s Andy and Fränk Schleck, and Garmin-Slipstream’s Brad Wiggins.
Superior climbing strength enabled the Schleck brothers to move up to the second and third places on Wednesday, but they are not great time trialists. That’s why Armstrong, Klöden and Wiggins all have hopes of displacing one or both of the Schlecks.
Armstrong, who has won more Tour time trials than any other current racer, has the best chance of succeeding. He has to make up 30 seconds on Fränk Schleck, and perhaps put another minute into him, to make sure that he can hang on to a podium spot on the Ventoux. It will be more difficult for him to make up the 1:30 he needs to move back ahead of Andy Schleck into second place.
Klöden (who is 49 seconds behind Armstrong) and Wiggins (58 seconds back of the Texan) have an even tougher task to make it to the Paris podium. They are both superior time trialists, but Thursday’s time trial is coming after 2,910km and 17 days of racing. All the riders are feeling the burden of another fast Tour.
As Andy Schleck said after stage 17 in Le Grand Bornand, “Everybody is tired. I felt tired for the first few hours of today’s stage, and I told the team I didn’t feel great. But I was also thinking that on Ventoux people will be even more tired. That could be good for Fränk and me because we both recover well.”
His big brother used similar thinking to assess his chance of staying on the podium till Paris. “We know we’re not the best at time trials — especially me — but whatever we lose tomorrow I hope we can take back on Ventoux.”
The only other individual time trial in this Tour was on day one in Monaco. Over 15.5km, compared with the 40.5km they will race on Thursday, Contador was the best of the current top six. Wiggins was next best (at one second); then came Klöden (at five seconds), Armstrong (at 22 seconds), Andy Schleck (at 42 seconds) and Fränk Schleck (at 1:18).
If those times are extrapolated to 40.5km, the elder Schleck would lose 2:31 to Armstrong, and his younger brother would concede just 52 seconds. If that becomes reality then Armstrong would likely claim third pace on the final podium, leaving Andy Schleck in second.
The danger with that theory is that Armstrong was not at his best in Monaco; he’s much stronger now, and will likely challenge Contador for the stage win in Annecy. Although there’s a Cat. 3 climb in the TT loop around the stunningly beautiful Lake of Annecy, the Côte de Bluffy is less than 4km long, climbs through 730 vertical feet, and has an average grade of 6 percent.
Starting times of the top eight riders on GC
Christian Vande Velde — 4:26 p.m. (10:26 EST)
Vincenzo Nibali — 4:29 p.m. (10:29 EST)
Bradley Wiggins — 4:32 p.m. (10:32 EST)
Andreas Klöden — 4:35 p.m. (10:35 EST)
Lance Armstrong — 4:38 p.m. (10:38 EST)
Fränk Schleck — 4:41 p.m. (10:41 EST)
Andy Schleck — 4:44 p.m. (10:44 EST)
Alberto Contador — 4:47 p.m. (10:47 EST)
The climb is preceded by 25km of complete flat roads while the final 12km from the summit is nearly all downhill. Such terrain would seem to favor Armstrong over Contador and the Schlecks. In the best possible circumstances for the Texan, he will move back into second place after the TT — and he’ll then have to get the support of Klöden and Contador on Mont Ventoux to hold that position into Paris on Sunday.
Another element that should favor Armstrong is the forecast weather conditions. The lightly built Contador and Schleck brothers will have a harder time fighting the forecast 40-kph head and crosswinds over the opening 19km, as well as on the descent of the Bluffy hill. Also predicted for the late starters (including all the contenders) are thunderstorms, when sudden downpours and swirling winds could hinder the smaller riders even more.
If the conditions are better for the early starters then look for a stage-winning performance from world TT champion Bert Grabsch of Columbia-HTC (who starts at 11:54 a.m. local time) or Olympic champ Fabian Cancellara of Saxo Bank (1:42 p.m. start). But the true interest in this time trial will come three hours later, when the battle for the podium will be in full swing.
Follow John’s twitter at twitter.com/johnwilcockson. His latest book, “Lance: The Making of the World’s Greatest Champion,” is available at www.velogear.com
